TSRC 2025 Toxicology Wrap Up: Risk Assessment Takes Center Stage

Sep 25, 2025

Writauthor avatarten By:Bonnie Coffa

The 78th Tobacco Science Research Conference (TSRC) devoted a full session to risk assessment, and it delivered practical tools, candid debate on 2024 FDA CTP tox memos (“Genotoxicity Hazard Identification and Carcinogenicity Tiering of Constituents in ENDS Premarket Tobacco Product Applications”, “Calculating Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk in ENDS Premarket Tobacco Product Applications”), and a clear call for more transparency from regulators and industry. 

This year’s risk assessment sessions highlighted recurring themes: the need to avoid inflated Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) estimates, the importance of applying weight-of-evidence (WoE) approaches, and the integration of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) with in vitro toxicology to generate more decision-relevant outcomes.

Evaluating FDA’s ELCR Framework: Strategic Insights for ENDS Product Assessments – Sapphire Sciences’ Ramez Labib unpacked FDA’s Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) framework with a case study on maltol, showing how a weight-of-evidence (WoE) review can re-tier equivocal Ames (mutagenic) results  and avoid overinflating ELCR in ENDS assessments. 

TSRC 2025 wrap up - Maltol case study slide.

Cancer Potency for “Non-Mutagenic” Flavorings – Juul Labs’ Felix Ayala-Fierro presented potency estimates for β-myrcene and pulegone. He walked through the underlying calculations and highlighted how potency values can inform comparative assessments of ENDS ingredients.

Comparative QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) and Component-Based Risk Assessment for Evaluating the Relative Health Risks – Riskwise’s Autumn Bernal compared Breeze Pro disposable ENDS with both combustibles and FDA-authorized ENDS (NJOY DAILY Rich Tobacco and Menthol). The QRA of key constituents and the product as a whole, combined with in vitro findings indicated minimal toxicity of Breeze aerosols. These findings strengthened the WoE that both tobacco- and non-tobacco-flavored disposable ENDS may represent reduced-harm options. 

TSRC 2025 wrap up - Riskwise slide.

Hazard Identification and Cumulative Risk Assessment of NJOY ENDS Products – Altria’s Sherwin Yan walked through hazard identification and cumulative risk assessment for NJOY ENDS. He highlighted the following limitations associated with CTP’s ELCR methodology: 

  • CTP’s ELCR approach may vastly overestimate actual human health risk. Their ELCR approach does not yield risk estimates aligned with other published analyses that have estimated 3-6.8% excess risk of ENDS to combustible cigarettes. CTP ELCR conservatively includes chemicals that may have sufficient (oral) in vivo data demonstrating a lack of carcinogenicity.
  • CTP’s approach on hazard tiering depreciates the value of WoE approach by considering deficient studies (non-GLP, non-OECD) for an identified hazard endpoint in lieu of robust evidence.
  • CTP has not made constituent/ingredient tiering publicly available – only obtained through FOIA.

Altria provided the following recommendations:

  1. Make the tox profiles and IURs (Inhalation Unit Risk) public, provide industry opportunities to review and comment, and/or provide additional data.
  2. Develop a system to engage stakeholders in a transparent process of compiling and reviewing data to establish proper IURs.
  3. Have clear criteria on the study qualities that can be included or excluded in the tox profile evidence. 

Panel Discussion: From Product Development to Regulatory Decision-Making

The day closed with a risk assessment panel, “Quantitative Risk Assessment in Toxicological Risk Evaluation: From Product Development to Regulatory Decision-Making.” Moderated by Charlene Liu and Cassandra West, the discussion featured panelists Jonathan Fallica (PMI), Amy Madl (Valeo Science), Sherwin Yan (Altria), and Irene Abraham (JTI).

TSRC 2025 panel discussion for risk assessment.

Amy Madl discussed the need for risk assessments that integrate both component-based QRA and mixture-based in vitro testing. Panelists emphasized the need for open dialogue with FDA, especially to clarify ingredient tiering for genotoxicity/carcinogenicity and weight-of-evidence criteria, and to address the memos’ concerns about mixture-based in vitro testing and cross-product genotoxic potency comparisons. Key takeaways included:

  • Component-based QRA provides benchmarks against risk thresholds and comparator products.
  • Mixture-based testing reflects real-world exposures and potential interaction effects.
  • Genotoxic potency and dose-response can differ between single compounds and mixtures.
  • Mechanistic understanding, dose-response data (e.g., NOGEL [No Observed Genotoxic Effect Level]), potency, and relevance to human exposure are critical for integrating genotoxicity into risk assessments.

Key Debates from the Panel

Several complex issues were discussed in depth:

1. Constituent Inclusion in ELCR Calculations. The ICH Guidelines (2023) link DNA-reactive substances that may cause mutations and cancer to positive Ames results. Non-mutagenic genotoxicants typically have threshold mechanisms and minimal carcinogenic risk at low levels. The FDA’s carcinogenicity tiering system extends beyond Ames mutagenicity (Tiers 4A and 4B). In addition, FDA previously indicated that QSAR-predicted (Tier 4D) and data-deficient constituents (4E) may not need to be included in ELCR calculations, aligning with ICH guidance. However, ambiguity in the FDA memo creates uncertainty.

Question: What is your opinion on including non-Ames positive in vitro (4C), QSAR-predicted (4D), or data-deficient (4E) constituents in the ELCR calculations if they lack confirmed mutagenic or carcinogenic potential? The overall consensus was not to automatically include 4C/4D/4E constituents in the ELCR by default, but instead to evaluate them with a WoE approach to avoid inflating ELCR.

2. Ingredient Data Gaps. Most e-liquid ingredients lack carcinogenicity evaluations and dose-response data from regulatory or professional agencies. In these cases, the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) of 1.5 µg/day is used as a surrogate to calculate ELCR.

Question: What is your experience in deriving a chemical-specific IUR or slope factor for data-poor constituents or using read-across? When inhalation data are missing, it may be beneficial to derive a chemical-specific IUR by transparently using read-across to closely related chemicals, identifying a Point of Departure (PoD), converting it to a human-equivalent concentration, applying appropriate uncertainty factors, and fully documenting the analog selection and rationale. 

Question: What is your view on using the default TTC of 1.5 ug/day to quantify ELCR for such constituents, particularly QSAR-predicted (Tier 4D) and data-deficient (4E)? Defaulting to the TTC (1.5 µg/day)  potentially inflates the final ELCR and dwarfs the contribution of known carcinogenic HPHCs. 

3. Mixture-Based In Vitro Testing. FDA has historically criticized the use of mixture-based in vitro test articles compared to single chemical substances. Recent FDA memos express concerns about using standard in vitro assays for genotoxicity testing of ENDS. In the JUUL TPL (2025), FDA addressed positive in vitro findings for e-liquids and aerosols by applying ELCR calculations and appropriate hazard identification.

Question: What are the key considerations for designing an in vitro test to effectively address FDA’s concerns? Design in vitro studies to meet FDA’s expectations by using sufficiently high, scientifically justified dose ranges, fully characterizing the test sample, and following OECD test guidelines under GLP.

Question: Is in vitro testing still necessary for assessing the toxicological profile of ENDS and other tobacco harm reduction (THR) products? Yes, mixture-based in vitro testing of the whole ENDS aerosol (particulate + gas-vapor phases) remains necessary because it captures device- and matrix-driven interactions that single constituent assessments can miss.  When interpreted alongside QRA of HPHCs and ingredient-specific data, it yields stronger, more decision-relevant weight-of-evidence for the toxicological profile and comparative risk of THR (Tobacco Harm Reduction) products. 

Looking Ahead

TSRC 2025’s risk assessment sessions reinforced a shared need: aligning regulatory frameworks with robust scientific evidence while maintaining transparency. The combination of QRA, WoE approaches, and in vitro testing can deliver more realistic, decision-relevant assessments of ENDS and other tobacco harm reduction products.

For those designing studies or interpreting regulatory memos, the message was clear: dialogue with FDA is critical, criteria for evidence must be transparent, and ELCR calculations must not be inflated by default inclusion of data-deficient or low-quality evidence.

TSRC 2025 Wrap Up: Final Thoughts

The consensus was clear: risk assessments must balance regulatory caution with scientific rigor. With clearer criteria, greater transparency, and robust in vitro + QRA integration, the field can move toward more consistent, decision-relevant evaluations of ENDS and other THR products.

73rd Tobacco Science Research Conference (TSRC): Highlights from “Tobacco Harm Reduction: Addressing Complexities Across the Risk Continuum”

Lansdowne Resort, Leesburg Virginia- September 15-18, 2019

Opening Symposium: “Tobacco Harm Reduction: Addressing Complexities Across the Risk Continuum”

Speaker #1: Scott Ballin (Health Policy Consultant) “Is Civil Dialogue and Engagement Between Diverse Stakeholders with Respect to Tobacco Harm Reduction Feasible? A Review of the Past, Present and Future”

Speaker #2: Matt Holman presenting on behalf of Deirdre Kittner (FDA CTP) “FDA Regulating Tobacco Products Along a Continuum of Risk”

Speaker # 3: Brian Erkkila (Foundation for a Smoke-free World) “Tobacco Harm Reduction: Weighing the Evidence”

Speaker #4: Willie McKinney (Juul Labs) “Tobacco Harm Reduction: Addressing Complexities Across the Risk Continuum”

Highlights from Discussions with FDA Director, Matt Holman- September 16, 2019

  • Holman: Premarket Tobacco Applications- Proposed Rule at OMB and should be coming out “very soon”
  • Holman: Modified Risk Tobacco Product Applications- We are maximizing efficiency and productivity of TPSAC committee
  • Holman: Science is central to CTP’s public health goals.
  • Questions from the audience:
    • Mike Ogden (RAI): What does the 1 year look like when CTP has 10-100s of thousands of products [PMTA applications] submitted? Holman Response: Identify products with a positive impact on public health and are APPH. How exactly that will look like is unknown. Working and thinking creatively.
    • Michael Borgerding (RAI): What about MRTPA metrics [not shown during presentation] and how do they compare to SE metrics? Holman Response:We know we aren’t meeting that metric, but we are putting things in place to meet that metric. There is a learning curve, and dialoguing with applicants. Shared goal to move them forward, but complicated issues we’re dealing with for the first time.
    • David Graham (NJOY): How additionally helpful will the proposed rule be? Holman Response: There is overlap between the proposed rule and the draft guidance on ENDS. However, there will be some distinctly new information in the proposed rule. Draft guidance=Recommendation, while Rule=Requirement. In addition, will include broader types of policy issues and new information for PMTA and additional insights.

Panel Discussion with Ballin, Holman, Erkkila and McKinney:

  • Questions from the audience:
    • Mike Ogden: There is a conflation of multiple issues, perhaps done unintentionally. Youth, flavors, illicit (an unintended consequence)? Holman: There are misperceptions and the agency is trying to distinguish. Can’t conclude its solely misuse of products. Addressing messaging and source.
    • Neil Sherwood: Components of THR? An order or list from CTP? Erkkila: Harm reduction is a nonbinary approach. Reducing the harm of behavior of using nicotine. Ballin: Harm reduction with nicotine blown out of proportion. Ex: Obesity. 30,000 smokers dying (in reference to 6 vape deaths).
    • Ian Fearon: What about accountability for scientists publishing data that is factually incorrect (Ex: Association of vaping causing heart attacks), and the journals publishing these articles? Erkkila: Open science, making all data available, raises the bar. Willie McKinney: Single study becomes fact versus a weight of evidence.

*Disclaimer: These are my notes on the comments/questions made during the symposium and not necessarily direct quotes from speakers.

June 11, 2019 FDA Releases Final Guidance for Premarket Tobacco Product Applications for ENDS

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-finalizes-guidance-premarket-tobacco-product-applications-electronic-nicotine-delivery-systems

Introduction

On June 11th, 2019, FDA released the final guidance for Premarket Tobacco Product Applications (PMTA) for Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS). This comes about a month off the heels of federal judge Grimm’s order for FDA to speed up its review of e-cigarettes, and siding with Public Health Groups such as the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, American Academy of Pediatrics, etc..

This was originally meant to be a high level summary, but after going through the 52 pages of information in the guidance document, this became more of a Cliff notes version. So, from 52 pages, I’ve condensed it down to about 9 pages.

High Level Summary

Products to which PMTA ENDS guidance applies to

E-liquids, E-cigarettes and ENDS products that package e-liquid and e-cigarettes together.

DOES NOT apply to the following categories of products:

  • Products with a cessation claim, those would be considered as NRT and under CDER review.
  • Unfinished Tobacco Products: “an e-liquid that is sold or distributed for further manufacturing into a finished ENDS product is not itself a finished tobacco product and, at this time, FDA does not intend to enforce against such e-liquids that are sold or distributed without a marketing order.”
  • E-liquids containing zero nicotine that (1) are not made or derived from tobacco, and (2) “not intended or reasonably expected to be mixed with liquid nicotine or other materials made or derived from tobacco”

Individual or multiple products can be submitted in same PMTA, but FDA will review products separately. As such, it is important to lay out the product specific information in a format that is easy and clear to find.

Public Health Considerations

The standard is to show that the new tobacco product is appropriate for the protection of public health (APPH). Basically, determination of the risks and benefits to the population as a whole (users and nonusers of the product) using valid scientific evidence (Published literature, Nonclinical studies and “appropriate” Bridging studies).

*Interesting to note, is FDA’s statement regarding not absolutely requiring long term studies (FDA defines long term studies as “those studies conducted over six months or longer”). Examples of long term studies mentioned include carcinogenicity bioassays and clinical studies spanning more than 6 months (short term clinical studies can be bridged to the literature, or nonclinical in vitro assays).

Comparison Products

FDA suggests making comparisons to other tobacco products.

  • Products within the same category and subcategory. FDA provides an example such as other e-liquids being used as comparator in an e-liquid PMTA. Closed e-cigarette devices should evaluate other similar product currently marketed, and same for open tank systems. Comparator products should be selected that match the candidate PMTA product in terms of materials used, ingredients in e-liquid, design, composition, heating source, etc.
  • Products within different categories (i.e. cigarettes, heat not burn products) that are intended to be used via similar route of administration.

Summary of All Research Information Included in PMTA

Scientific Studies

  1. Product Analysis and Manufacturing. This includes lab accreditation, method validation, CMC, product shelf life stability and product design hazards. In addition, FDA “recommends a comparison to other e-liquids with similar nicotine content, flavors, and other ingredients, used in the same manner and under similar conditions.” and “manufacturers of e-liquids test the constituent delivery in an e-cigarette that is designed to deliver low levels of aerosol (such as open refillable cigarette-like systems) as well as in an e-cigarette that is designed to deliver higher levels of aerosol with varying temperatures and voltage (such as a tank or mod system)”.

 The FDA list of constituents or “chemicals for analysis in e-liquids or aerosols, or both, as  appropriate” for PMTA candidate product(s) has been revised in the final guidance, from 29 to 33 constituents. They have removed 8 chemicals (ammonia, anabasine, 4-aminobiphenyl, 1-aminonapthalene, 2-aminonapthalene, benzo-A-pyrene, 1,3-butadiene, and isoprene) and added an additional 12 new chemicals (benzyl acetate, buteraldehyde, ethyl acetate, etyl acetoacetate, furfural, glycerol, glycidol, isoamyl acetate, isobutyl acetate, methyl acetate, N-butanol, propionic acid, and propylene oxide). FDA also mentions that additional flavorants be measured if they “can be respiratory irritants such as benzaldehyde, vanillin and cinnamaldehyde”.  FDA recommends that pH of the e-liquid and aerosol should also be measured.

  2. Nonclinical and Human Subjects Studies that must be provided (but not limited to):

    1. Studies assessing constituents of tobacco, aerosol
    2. Toxicology
    3. Consumer exposure
    4. Consumer use profiles
    5. Consumer risk perception

Important to note, FDA recommends including “documentation of all actions taken to ensure the reliability of the study, such as appropriate good laboratory practices found in 21 CFR part 58”.

Nonclinical Health Risk Information:

  1. Toxicology data from the published literature
  2. Analysis of constituents under intense and non-intense conditions
  3. In vitro Toxicology (genotoxicity studies, cytotoxicity studies; recommend ICH S2(R1) and OECD protocol/guidelines)
  4. Computational modeling of toxicants in product (for toxicity estimates)
  5. In vivo Toxicology studies (“to address unique issues that can’t be addressed by alternative approaches”)

FDA suggests that “a thorough literature review, including publicly available toxicology databases, can provide valuable information on the toxicity of the ingredients in the e-liquid and aerosol by the expected route of exposure and level of exposure.” Following were recommendations listed by FDA.

  • Description of search methodology
  • All publications related to Tox evaluation of ingredients and the mixture of ingredients in e-liquid and aerosol produced (specifically oral, inhalation, dermal and ocular routes of exposure)
  • Information concerning container extractables and leachables which could be transferred to e-liquid or aerosol
  • Toxicological endpoints: cytotoxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity and respiratory, cardiac, reproductive and developmental toxicity
  • Exposure kinetics, metabolism and deposition and elimination profile of ingredients (should mimic highest consumer use scenario and one lower exposure level)
  • Conclusion regarding toxicological concern of ingredients, constituents, flavors, humectants that will be delivered in the aerosol
  • Info on physiochemical changes of the mixture of ingredients in product (due to temperature, wattage and or voltage changes)

”We recommend that you provide aerosolization properties of each of the ingredients (e.g. constituents, humectants, metals, flavors included), particle size of these ingredients in the product and deposition of these particles through inhalation.”

“In the absence of toxicological data for a particular toxicant of concern, we recommend that you consider computational modeling using surrogate chemical structures.”

Human Health Impact Information

FDA Recommends studies that identify (1) Biomarkers of Exposure (BOE), (2) Biomarkers of Potential Harm (BOPH) and (3) Health outcome measurements or endpoints in the following populations:

  • Users who switch from other tobacco products to candidate PMTA product
  • Tobacco users and nonusers who after using candidate PMTA product, switch to or switch back to higher risk products
  • Tobacco users who use the candidate PMTA product versus quitting tobacco
  • Tobacco users who use the candidate PMTA product versus FDA approved cessation medications
  • Tobacco users who use the candidate PMTA product with other tobacco products
  • Nonusers (youth, never users, former users) who may initiate or relapse tobacco with use of candidate PMTA product
  • Nonusers who experience adverse health effects from candidate PMTA product

Studies that FDA suggests may be included to address above concerns:

  1. Consumer Perceptions and Intentions. Should “include use intentions among current ENDS users, nonusers, and other tobacco product users, as well as reasons for use”.
  2. Likelihood of initiation and cessation by users and nonusers of tobacco (published literature or applicant initiated studies). FDA states, “Although randomized clinical trials could address cessation behavior of users of tobacco products, FDA believes this would also be true for observational studies (perception, actual use, or both) examining cessation behaviors.”
  3. Product Use Patterns. User topography, frequency of product use and use patterns over time. FDA suggests for products not previously on the market, that applicant conduct actual use studies. Marketing data or company research conducted can be used for previously marketed products.

* FDA also recommends sharing marketing plan or sales data for currently marketed products.

   4. Labeling Comprehension and Actual Use.

   5. Human Factors. Studies such as actual use studies, labeling comprehension, focus group studies and surveys that identify:

  • Normal use and forseeable misuse
  • Product user and nonusers
  • Use environment
  • Use-related hazards and estimated use error risk
  • Risk controls
  • Adverse experiences

   6. Abuse Liability. PK evaluations, addictiveness, abuse and misuse potential. Comparisons should be made to other ENDS products and cigarettes.

  7. Biomarkers of Potential Harm and Biomarkers of Exposure.

  8. Health Outcomes. Changes in physiological measurements (heart rate, and blood pressure), changes in lung, cardiac and metabolic function, adverse experiences (cough, throat irritation) and changes in lab values (complete blood count, markers of inflammation).

Additional information for E-liquid Products

In addition, FDA suggests that additional info in Product Analysis and Manufacturing section for e-liquid PMTAs.

  1. Components, Ingredients and Additives. Provide adequate information to characterize ingredients in e-liquid and identify “characteristics in e-liquid that may impact constituents in the aerosol.” “FDA also recommends that you provide e-liquid design parameters that would be affected by, and that would affect, e-cigarette performance, such as e-liquid viscosity and boiling point.”
  2. Flavors. FDA recommends scientific reviews of flavors in e-liquid in terms of toxicity and appeal (to youth and young adults).

Additional information for E-cigarettes

  1. E-cigarette design factors.
  2. Possible design parameters for subcategories of e-cigarette components and parts. (Batteries, Atomizers and other similar parts and software)

Additional Information Regarding Literature Reviews

While FDA states that literature reports may be acceptable to support a PMTA, they are considered a less robust form of support.

Literature reviews should identify the following:

  • Search strategy
  • Specific question addressed by literature
  • Clearly identify all publications that address the specific question
  • Funding source identification
  • Study design and methods
  • Characterization of study participants
  • Year and geographical location of studies
  • Strengths and limitations of study
  • Interpretation of study findings
  • Provide adequate justification for bridging data from category to candidate product
  • Summary of the evidence from literature
  • Documentation of how literature findings support (or do not) marketing of product would be appropriate for the protection of public health
  • Bibliography and appendix with references publications
  • Comparative assessments of health risks of candidate product compared with quitting tobacco, using other tobacco products and never use of tobacco

Additional Information Regarding Analysis of Published Literature and Public Databases

  • Must provide critical study detaiis
  • If primary data can’t be obtained, the recommendation is to obtain other relevant info such as protocol, records of trial conduct and procedures, subject data listings for key variables and documentation of statistical analysis
  • Capture and document complete info for all adverse experiences and subject withdrawal from study

Additional Information Regarding Bridging

FDA states that bridging “may be feasible for a subset of products or for certain types of studies”.

  1. They state, “For example, “X-flavor” e-liquids with nicotine concentrations ranging from 1 milligram to 24 mg/mL may not require unique studies for each nicotine concentration of the “X-flavor” products if data from a subset of nicotine concentrations (e.g., low, middle, high) of “X-flavor” products may be bridged to other concentrations of “X-flavor” products.”.
  2. Information from earlier versions of ENDS products or similar products may be used for bridging studies
  3. Bridging studies to other intended locations or regions where product will be used versus conducting new studies

Postmarket Requirements

FDA does not require a postmarketing plan in the PMTA. They state, a marketing order under 910(c)(1)(A)(i) of the Tobacco Act “may require that the sale and distribution of the tobacco product be restricted, but only to the extent that the sale and distribution of the tobacco product may be restricted under a regulation under 906(d).” Finally, under 910(f), FDA “may require that you establish and maintain certain postmarket records and make certain postmarket reports to FD

ToxPharm is an independent toxicology and regulatory science consultancy providing defensible, science-driven risk assessments for complex and emerging products. We specialize in translating toxicological data into clear regulatory strategies that support product development, market access, and long-term compliance.

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